TL;DR
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, focused on economic conditions, customer behavior, AI, project spending and retail channels. Speakers cited a forecast for 2.5% growth in home improvement products in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit convened industry leaders in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, consumer decisions and artificial intelligence’s place in renovation planning. HIRI’s outlook called for the home improvement products market to grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while shrinking 1.5% after inflation—a split that framed discussion about demand and business planning.
The summit organized its sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, home improvement project spending, and sales channels. Speakers considered how inflation, housing affordability, income and mortgage conditions affect homebuyers and home improvement activity. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, the National Association of Home Builders’ assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981.
HIRI’s Dave King joined Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at OpenBrand, and Michael Zdinak, director at S&P Global, in a discussion of how affordability, mortgage rates and income are shaping buyers. The source report does not provide detailed estimates of each factor’s effect, but the session placed housing costs and purchasing power among the conditions retailers and manufacturers are monitoring.
Other sessions addressed how customers choose products and services, including the influence of professional contractors and AI tools. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented findings from the firms’ Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Liza Hausman, senior vice president of marketing at Houzz, presented company research indicating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI for help.
Forecasts Put Inflation in Focus
The summit’s headline market figures point to a difference between nominal growth and inflation-adjusted activity. HIRI’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast projects 2.5% growth in current dollars for 2026, but a 1.5% contraction after inflation. The two measures describe different things: sales value may rise even as the amount of goods and services represented by that spending declines in real terms.
For manufacturers and retailers, that distinction matters when setting expectations for demand, pricing and investment. The summit’s discussions also indicate that customers’ decisions are shaped by more than product availability: housing affordability, household income, contractor advice and AI-assisted research all feature in the reported findings. The figures do not establish that AI use causes higher renovation spending or that contractor confidence will translate directly into completed projects. They do, however, offer businesses indicators to consider alongside the broader market forecast.
King’s closing guidance to manufacturers was to reduce uncertainty in customers’ decisions in the coming quarter. In a market where inflation-adjusted activity is forecast to fall, that advice puts clear product information and dependable customer support at the center of the summit’s practical message.
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Five Themes Shaped the Summit
HIRI’s annual Home Improvement Insights Summit is a forum for industry professionals to review research and market conditions affecting home improvement. The 2026 program brought together speakers from research organizations, a home design platform and the home improvement media sector. Its sessions linked broad economic trends to the choices consumers make when planning and carrying out projects.
The report also described a discussion with Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, about how the brand maintains relevance. O’Connor said its approach centers on earning trust by educating audiences first, being accurate and avoiding a transactional tone. That discussion complemented the sessions on customer journeys by focusing on how information and trust can influence home improvement decisions.
The forecast and survey results cited at the event cover different time frames and measures. HIRI’s market outlook concerns 2026 product-market growth, while the contractor index records confidence about the following six months, and Houzz’s figures concern homeowners’ AI use and renovation spending. They provide separate indicators rather than a single, directly comparable measure of market performance.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— HIRI’s Dave King, as reported in Hardware Retailing
Survey Scope and Forecast Risks
The summit report does not specify the sample sizes, survey methods or question wording behind the 22% AI-use figure, the 25% share of renovation dollars, or the contractor confidence score. It also does not explain how the renovation-dollar figure was calculated or define the index’s methodology. Those details would be needed to assess how broadly the results apply.
The source material does not provide the assumptions behind HIRI’s 2026 market forecast or identify how conditions may change after the reporting period. The forecast is an outlook, not a final measurement of year-end performance. It is also unclear whether AI users spend more because of AI assistance or whether households already planning larger projects are more likely to use those tools.
The report gives the median age of first-time homebuyers in 2026 and its 1981 comparison, but does not provide a fuller time series or explain the factors behind the change. The summit’s discussions identify issues affecting the sector; they do not resolve how much each one contributes to future demand.
Businesses Watch the Coming Quarter
HIRI’s stated near-term focus is the coming quarter, with King urging manufacturers to make customers’ choices less uncertain. Companies can use the summit’s findings as signals to track, but the source report does not announce a new policy, product launch or formal industry commitment.
Further evidence will depend on subsequent market reporting and updated survey results. Relevant measures include whether contractor confidence translates into booked work, how inflation-adjusted product-market performance compares with HIRI’s forecast, and whether reported AI use among homeowners changes. The source material does not give dates for the next releases or say when HIRI will revise its outlook.
Key Questions
When and where was HIRI’s 2026 Summit held?
The Home Improvement Insights Summit took place in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, 2026.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market?
HIRI’s Q3 2026 forecast projected 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026 and a 1.5% decline after inflation.
What did the summit report about AI use in renovation?
Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented research stating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation, and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households using AI for help. The report does not provide the research methodology or establish that AI use causes higher spending.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 rated contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10, according to the summit report.
What remains unknown about the summit’s findings?
The source report does not give full methodology or sample sizes for the cited research, nor the assumptions behind HIRI’s forecast. It also does not show whether AI use leads to different renovation outcomes or how the forecast will compare with final 2026 results.
Source: rss
